Victoria’s property market is gearing up for one of its busiest spring seasons in years — and this time, it’s the first-home buyers who look set to take centre stage.
With auction volumes surging and fresh data showing a rebound in demand from renters wanting to make the leap into ownership, experts are tipping a “first-home buyer comeback” that could reshape the market dynamics across the state.
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A Surge in Auctions Sets the Tone
This week alone, PropTrack forecasts that 1,080 homes will go under the hammer across Victoria — a 9% jump compared to the same week last year. The momentum is already building, with the state recording a strong 68% auction clearance rate last week, a promising sign ahead of the traditional spring selling season.
Spring has always been the busiest period for real estate, but this year the interest is less about investors or upsizers — and more about younger buyers finally stepping up after years of sitting on the sidelines.
Why Renters Are Turning to Homeownership
According to fresh research from Resolve Finance’s Generation Rent report, the shift is clear: renters across the country are increasingly motivated to buy. Out of more than 1,000 renters surveyed, 57% said they plan to purchase their first home or investment property within the next two years, a significant jump from 42% in 2024.
Victoria leads the charge, with 62% of renters signalling they’re preparing to enter the market. New South Wales follows with 56%, and Queensland at 54% — both well above last year’s levels.
The report highlights what many renters already know: with rents climbing to record highs and property prices still marching upward, buying is starting to look less like a dream and more like a necessity.
Government Support Fuels Optimism
Resolve Finance managing director Don Crellin says the shift can be summed up as nothing short of a comeback.
Even with the hurdles in today’s market, more renters are showing a strong determination to step into homeownership,” he said, highlighting the boost from Housing Australia programs such as the First Home Guarantee scheme.
From October 1, the scheme will expand to include higher property price caps and income thresholds, enabling more first-home buyers to qualify with just a 5% deposit. For many renters struggling to save while paying rising rents, this change could be the opportunity they’ve been waiting for.
What Can Buyers Afford?
Affordability remains a challenge, but recent analysis by PropTrack and CBA shows that progress is being made. A couple in Victoria, aged in their late 20s or early 30s and earning a combined $140,000, could afford nearly a quarter (24%) of all homes sold across the state in the past year.
While this still leaves many properties out of reach, it represents a significant slice of the market and reflects the impact of both increased earnings and targeted support schemes.
Lending Data Confirms the Shift
The Australian Bureau of Statistics also points to rising demand. In the most recent financial year, 38,472 new loans were issued to first-home buyers in Victoria, compared to 36,756 the year prior. That’s an increase of almost 2,000 loans — evidence that many renters are already making good on their plans to buy.
Meanwhile, rental pressures continue to mount. PropTrack data reveals that the typical rent in Melbourne climbed from $560 a week at the end of 2024 to $575 just four months later. For many tenants, this steady climb is becoming the final push towards homeownership
Looking Ahead
As the spring season unfolds, all eyes will be on whether this renewed energy from first-home buyers translates into strong bidding at auctions and more activity in the lower-to-mid price brackets. With government schemes widening access and affordability improving slightly for dual-income households, the pieces are lining up for a genuine shift in market sentiment.
If the data holds true, Victoria could witness one of the most active first-home buyer markets in years, reshaping not just the auction landscape this spring, but the longer-term balance between renters and owners across the state.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. Why are first-home buyers making a comeback in Victoria’s property market?
Rising rents, government support schemes, and slightly improved affordability are motivating renters to buy homes. Many are finding it makes more financial sense to buy than continue renting at today’s high prices.
2. What government support is available for first-home buyers in 2025?
The Home Guarantee Scheme is expanding from October 1, 2025, lifting property price caps and income thresholds. Eligible buyers can secure a home with just a 5% deposit, without needing to pay costly lenders mortgage insurance.
3. How many first-home buyers are entering the market in Victoria?
According to ABS data, 38,472 new loans were issued to first-home buyers in Victoria in the past financial year, up from 36,756 the year before — showing stronger activity from this group.
4. Can first-home buyers afford much of the Victorian market?
A typical Victorian couple in their late 20s or early 30s, earning around $140,000 a year, could afford about 24% of homes sold across the state last year, according to PropTrack and CBA.
5. Is renting still cheaper than buying in Melbourne?
Not necessarily. With Melbourne’s median rent climbing from $560 per week in December 2024 to $575 by April 2025, many renters are finding that mortgage repayments — especially with a deposit and government support — can be competitive with rental costs.
About the Author : Carol Jain is a Buyers Agent at Ambyy Buyers Agency She has experience in buying residential, investment and commercial properties in cities and regional Australia for her domestic and international clients . If you have a very specific question about buying residential, investment or commercial property in Australia, you can connect with her directly at caroljain@ambyy.com.au.
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